Exbookie wants to help the players Round 3 of the playoffs

[ACE-ACE]

bankroll $75,000
FORMULA SYSTEM 22-15-2
INVESTMENT 22-12-1 +$20,006.00
ACTION 38-35 +$1105
BANKROLL NOW $96,111.00

Got a e-mail I want to share with you at Docsports
I'am looking for a handicapper to go with long-tearm. your web site says that you were profitable in all sports last year


I said

Greetings,
Thank you very much for the inquiry and I appreciate you reaching out.
I want to focus on one thing that you put in your e-mail: “long-term”. I just want to tell you that is exactly the attitude that you want to have and that is the perfect way to look at betting – as a long-term investment. That is how I approach my own gambling and handicapping (I bet on every game that I release) and that is what has allowed me to be successful for over 20 years in this business. Your approach right there lets me know that you’re going to successful in this venture and that you are serious about making money.
I also want to correct something that you mentioned. I was not only profitable in every sport that I released picks for last year but I was profitable in every sport that I released picks on that started in the year 2009 as well. Basically, I am on a two-year winning streak in football, college basketball and/or the NBA.
I have banked my $100-per-Unit clients about $20,000 during that time period. (I didn’t count the 2008 football toward the total because that sport started in 2008.) That is sustained, consistent success. Hey, I don’t always “tear it up” in all of the sports. My college basketball numbers were pretty pedestrian. But my MLB, football and NBA numbers I will stack up with anyone in the business. And I rely on fundamentals of betting (line value, going against the public, statistics and long-term trends) so my long-term earnings aren’t some fluke. Anyone can have one lucky month or even one lucky season. But for someone to make money, significant, consistent money, over two full calendar years you know that they are the real thing.
I always believe that it’s not where you start; it’s where you finish. And each of these years, and hopefully for years going forward, I always end up in the black. That is through all the highs and the lows, the big wins and the bad beats. And not only do my clients keep playing but they keep making money.
Like I said, I bet every single game that I release. So when you play with me it is a true “partnership in profit” because if I’m making money you are making money and vice versa.
I hope that this has been informative and I hope that this makes your decision an easy one. If you are interested in the “flavor of the month” handicapper then you may want someone else. But if you want a veteran handicapper with a proven track record of success and someone that will keep earning not over days and weeks, but months and years, then I would love to “partner up”.

my e-mail list is like a forum within itself....If I can help in any way PM me or E-mail me...all you have to do is hit my name and you will see what you need to talk with me. I have Partner up with the RX to show My plays...not all picks...to get them you have to pay at Docsports or be on My pivate e-mail list....

At therx you just need to do the Promo to see some.



My line

...............myline...............last 8 weeks.................last 4

GB-3............-10.5...................-6.5.........................-7

Pitt -3.5........-6........................-8............................-5


My line Totals

gb line 44......formula says 49....books avg on both teams 38

what they both have done GB and Chi 44.5

(looks like its a tight line)



pitt and Nyj 39

Formula says 43

bookie avg 38

what they have done 44.5

you see a edge to the up side!!


top line off

gb +136
pitt +66
nyj +40
chi +37


top time

gb +38
pitt +31
nyj +29
chi -2


top turn over (less is best)

gb 25
pit 26
nyj 27
chi 35

as you see there is a few that stand out


so capper....what view of the games do you see??
the more the better....share them here...this is your thread



More to come

Ace

 

[jasmine]

bankroll $75,000
FORMULA SYSTEM 22-15-2
INVESTMENT 22-12-1 +$20,006.00
ACTION 38-35 +$1105
BANKROLL NOW $96,111.00

Got a e-mail I want to share with you at Docsports
I'am looking for a handicapper to go with long-tearm. your web site says that you were profitable in all sports last year


I said

Greetings,
Thank you very much for the inquiry and I appreciate you reaching out.
I want to focus on one thing that you put in your e-mail: “long-term”. I just want to tell you that is exactly the attitude that you want to have and that is the perfect way to look at betting – as a long-term investment. That is how I approach my own gambling and handicapping (I bet on every game that I release) and that is what has allowed me to be successful for over 20 years in this business. Your approach right there lets me know that you’re going to successful in this venture and that you are serious about making money.
I also want to correct something that you mentioned. I was not only profitable in every sport that I released picks for last year but I was profitable in every sport that I released picks on that started in the year 2009 as well. Basically, I am on a two-year winning streak in football, college basketball and/or the NBA.
I have banked my $100-per-Unit clients about $20,000 during that time period. (I didn’t count the 2008 football toward the total because that sport started in 2008.) That is sustained, consistent success. Hey, I don’t always “tear it up” in all of the sports. My college basketball numbers were pretty pedestrian. But my MLB, football and NBA numbers I will stack up with anyone in the business. And I rely on fundamentals of betting (line value, going against the public, statistics and long-term trends) so my long-term earnings aren’t some fluke. Anyone can have one lucky month or even one lucky season. But for someone to make money, significant, consistent money, over two full calendar years you know that they are the real thing.
I always believe that it’s not where you start; it’s where you finish. And each of these years, and hopefully for years going forward, I always end up in the black. That is through all the highs and the lows, the big wins and the bad beats. And not only do my clients keep playing but they keep making money.
Like I said, I bet every single game that I release. So when you play with me it is a true “partnership in profit” because if I’m making money you are making money and vice versa.
I hope that this has been informative and I hope that this makes your decision an easy one. If you are interested in the “flavor of the month” handicapper then you may want someone else. But if you want a veteran handicapper with a proven track record of success and someone that will keep earning not over days and weeks, but months and years, then I would love to “partner up”.

my e-mail list is like a forum within itself....If I can help in any way PM me or E-mail me...all you have to do is hit my name and you will see what you need to talk with me. I have Partner up with the RX to show My plays...not all picks...to get them you have to pay at Docsports or be on My pivate e-mail list....

At therx you just need to do the Promo to see some.



My line

...............myline...............last 8 weeks.................last 4

GB-3............-10.5...................-6.5.........................-7

Pitt -3.5........-6........................-8............................-5


My line Totals

gb line 44......formula says 49....books avg on both teams 38

what they both have done GB and Chi 44.5

(looks like its a tight line)



pitt and Nyj 39

Formula says 43

bookie avg 38

what they have done 44.5

you see a edge to the up side!!


top line off

gb +136
pitt +66
nyj +40
chi +37


top time

gb +38
pitt +31
nyj +29
chi -2


top turn over (less is best)

gb 25
pit 26
nyj 27
chi 35

as you see there is a few that stand out


so capper....what view of the games do you see??
the more the better....share them here...this is your thread



More to come

Ace

Hello Ace, my numbers show this for the totals using your way, and my brothers way here they are::::


--------------------ACE WAY-------------------Brother's way
Greenbay/chicago----43---------------------------44.9

Newyork/Pitts--------49.5-------------------------54

:grandmais

 

[teamfball]

Ace I disagree with the GB/CHI total numbers.

bookie avg 38………..Should be (44.1+38.3)/2= 40.8
what they have done 44.5………..Should be (47.8+48.2)/2= 48
Still no real advantage, just corrected numbers.

I agree with your numbers on the NYJ/PIT game.

How much do you think the new overtime rules affect the value of an over play..?

Also adding up to date DPR numbers for everyone.

GB…….68.09
CHI…....75.85
JETS…..79.31
PITT…..72.50
[FONT=&quot]..[/FONT]

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace I disagree with the GB/CHI total numbers.

bookie avg 38………..Should be (44.1+38.3)/2= 40.8
what they have done 44.5………..Should be (47.8+48.2)/2= 48
Still no real advantage, just corrected numbers.

I agree with your numbers on the NYJ/PIT game.

How much do you think the new overtime rules affect the value of an over play..?

Also adding up to date DPR numbers for everyone.

GB…….68.09
CHI…....75.85
JETS…..79.31
PITT…..72.50
[FONT=&quot]..[/FONT]

not too many overtime games in the playoffs that I can remember

do you do the DPR each week by hand or is it updated by itself?

you may have to join my team next year.

 

[Ezdoesit]

Hey ace how do you feel the familiar factor plays in the GB/Chi game. My original thoughts are under, i think these two defenses will be playing lights out, i think chicago will be conservative trying not to turn the ball over and give rodgers a short field, i think GB takes time this week to fix there special team woes and i don't c a special teams td, i think the running game will be a big factor into who wins this game as well. Also w/ all 4 games last week going over and Chi and GB both putting up over 30 pts themselves, why is this number only at 43? My only concern is that i dunno who the advantage goes to being this is the 3rd time these teams will face off this year. Will Rodgers have the advantage exploiting the defense from what he has learned? Or will the defenses have the advantage knowing what to expect coming into this one? 1st time they met it was 20-17 staying under the 45, then 10-3 at soldier field in the 2nd meeting staying under the 43 hinting that the defenses have benefited from the previous meetings. My prediction is a 24-17 final staying under by a few.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hey ace how do you feel the familiar factor plays in the GB/Chi game. My original thoughts are under, i think these two defenses will be playing lights out, i think chicago will be conservative trying not to turn the ball over and give rodgers a short field, i think GB takes time this week to fix there special team woes and i don't c a special teams td, i think the running game will be a big factor into who wins this game as well. Also w/ all 4 games last week going over and Chi and GB both putting up over 30 pts themselves, why is this number only at 43? My only concern is that i dunno who the advantage goes to being this is the 3rd time these teams will face off this year. Will Rodgers have the advantage exploiting the defense from what he has learned? Or will the defenses have the advantage knowing what to expect coming into this one? 1st time they met it was 20-17 staying under the 45, then 10-3 at soldier field in the 2nd meeting staying under the 43 hinting that the defenses have benefited from the previous meetings. My prediction is a 24-17 final staying under by a few.

the game that was 20-17 had a line of 47
2nd game was 41.5 on the over and under

so the books lower it from the 47 number

my feeling is the number will be round 17-23...24-20....air game for gb gets two TD!

 

[Solomon]

Also adding up to date DPR numbers for everyone.

GB…….68.09
CHI…....75.85
JETS…..79.31
PITT…..72.50
[FONT=&quot]..[/FONT]

How did you calculate these?
Thanks
Solomon

 

[teamfball]

Pittsburgh, the only team to improve it’s DPR during the playoffs.




View attachment 11780





[FONT=&quot]Solomon PM me.[/FONT]

 

[BernieVegas]

Being the math/numbers guy that I've been my whole life I have a few questions

#1) The O/U formulation Average Yards both teams -325 divided by 7.5 = ( ) is who's formula???

This weeks games
Green Bay 360.1
Chicago 298.1
Total 658.2yds - 325 = 333.2 divided by 7.5 = 44.42 (no value with O/U at 44)

New York Jets 348.3
Pitt 340.5
Total 688.8 - 325 = 363.8 divided by 7.5 = 48.50 (value on the OVER 38.5)

#2) What is DPR??? How is it calculated??? Is it a good indicator???

Again thanks for all the info.......

Yours in Winners
Bernie

 

[TimesYours]

Hey Bernie, I know what DPR is;
From the perspective of individual production, those same six teams all rank in the top 10 in Defensive Passer Rating, a Cold, Hard Football Facts “Quality Stat” and the most effective measure of each team’s pass defense. It merely takes the formula used to rate quarterbacks and applies it to pass defenses.

 

[BernieVegas]

Hey Bernie, I know what DPR is;
From the perspective of individual production, those same six teams all rank in the top 10 in Defensive Passer Rating, a Cold, Hard Football Facts “Quality Stat” and the most effective measure of each team’s pass defense. It merely takes the formula used to rate quarterbacks and applies it to pass defenses.

Thanks TimesYours.....I knew what DPR (Defensive Passer Rating) was but wasn't sure how the numbers were calculated. They have been a good barometer for years. Do you actually know the formula???

Thanks Again
Bernie

P.S. One just needs to check the ATS record in the playoffs of the four remaining teams and the correlation to their top DPR ratings to see it is a successful tool to use.

 

[ACE-ACE]

NFL Opening Line Report: Conference Championships

The NFL wagering world is wide open now that the two top seeds are out of the picture.

After sneaking into the playoffs in Week 17, the Green Bay Packers are now set as the Super Bowl favorites, pegged at around +140 at most books.

The Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t far behind at +200 after their impressive second-half comeback over the Baltimore Ravens, while their opponent this weekend, the New York Jets, check in at +300. Lovie Smith and his Chicago Bears are the longshot on the board at +500.

If you’re looking for some fat underdogs to play on the moneyline after cashing in last weekend, you’re out of luck. The books are bracing for two tight games with both lines hovering around a field goal and are wary of moving off that key number, meaning we likely won’t see much line movement throughout the week.

Meanwhile, the books couldn’t be happier about these two matchups. All four remaining clubs are public darlings, so keeping their action balanced shouldn’t be much of a problem, unlike last weekend.

“These two matchups involving these teams in particular has the potential to create a record handle wagered legally in Nevada for championship weekend,” says Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3, 44)

After two tough battles between these two teams, the books don’t expect anything different this time around. They do, however, expect a lot of action on the Packers after they dominated the Falcons at the Georgia Dome last week.

The books that have the Packers set at -3 have already bumped up the juice to around -120 at this point, while others have the line at -3.5. This likely won’t change much this week, so you’ll have to shop around for a line that suits you best.

“The Packers have the most momentum on the field and at the betting windows,” says Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook Director. “The public cannot get enough of the Pack right now and that’s why you see this inflated number.

“I expect most of the tickets on the Packers with the sharp money coming in on the Bears once it maxes out. Where? That is the big question. I would say -3.5 -120 on the Packers.”

As we saw in the first half last weekend in Chicago, weather may also play a major role in this weekend’s game.

“With Aaron Rodgers playing so well, and Jay Culter playing pretty well himself, bettors will be expecting offense,” Greg Sindall, SportsInteraction.com oddsmaker says. “Expect the total to rise as the week progresses.”



New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 38.5)

It’s hard to say which team comes into this matchup with more momentum. New York thoroughly outplayed New England for most of the game before slipping a bit late in the game as the Jets leaned on what amounted to a prevent defense to protect the lead.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, was terrible in to the opening half against Baltimore, but rebounded with almost a perfect second half.

Many Vegas books opened this line at Pittsburgh -3.5 or even at -4, which was bet down to closer to a field goal quickly. At online shops, there are just about as many -3.5 lines out there now as there are -3s, giving bettors good variety for shopping.

“Coming into this season the Jets were the popular en vogue team amongst bettors and were bet to the preseason Super Bowl favorite throughout sportsbooks in Nevada,” says Esposito. “I also feel there will be a tremendous amount of moneyline play on the Jets.”

But you have to wonder how the tough road to the Conference Championships has impacted both of these teams. The Steelers are coming off a bruising matchup against the Ravens, while the Jets have to head into yet another road game as the underdog.

“I can’t believe that two road games in very tough stadiums won’t have an impact on the Jets,” says Sindall. “Surely they will be worn down a little bit – both physically and mentally. Personally, I think they burned a lot of energy on the Patriots. I think their win against the Pats was very emotional and that could work against them against Pittsburgh.”


GREEN BAY (12 - 6) at CHICAGO (12 - 5) - 1/23/2011, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 133-99 ATS (+24.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (13 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (13 - 4) - 1/23/2011, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
NY JETS are 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
NY JETS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFC Championship Game
GREEN BAY at CHICAGO, 3:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 8-2 UNDER in road games
CHICAGO: 6-0 Under vs. Green Bay

AFC Championship Game
NY JETS at PITTSBURGH, 6:30 PM ET
NY JETS: 6-0 ATS off a division win PITTSBURGH: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Trend Report
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay

6:30 PM
NY JETS vs. PITTSBURGH
NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
NY Jets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Championship Weekend
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3.5)

Why Packers cover: The strangeness continues this playoff season, as once again the road team ends up being favored. But with the way Green Bay is playing it is hard to argue with the spread. Chicago had the easiest matchup of the remaining teams this postseason when it hosted Seattle last week, whereas the Packers are coming off two convincing road victories against teams that could have easily ended up in the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers is playing at a ridiculous level and may be the MVP of the playoffs so far. Through two games he has completed 78 percent of his passes while accounting for seven touchdowns (six passing, one rushing). Add to that a blitzing defense that is facing a quarterback that tends to throw interceptions and you have a recipe for Green Bay's first Super Bowl appearance since 1998. The Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago.

Why Bears cover: If there is one thing the Bears do well, it is stopping Green Bay's powerful offense from scoring. In their two meetings this season, the Packers averaged a pathetic 13.5 points per game against Chicago, almost 11 points less than their season average. The Bears defense held Green Bay to an average of 61.5 yards rushing in those games, which puts a lot of pressure on Rodgers to carry the offensive load. Devin Hester is a game changer on special teams and when teams try to account for his presence as a kick returner, they often give up valuable field position just trying to stay away from him.

Total (43.5): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.



New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Why Jets cover: No team likes being the center of attention like the Jets. After waltzing into Foxboro and whipping the Patriots last week as 9.5-point dogs, they travel to face a Steelers team that they upset on the road in Week 15 as 3.5-point pups. Mark Sanchez has been a playoff road warrior boasting a 4-1 record away from home and has been enjoying some strong protection from his offensive line this postseason. LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene have combined for 271 yards rushing and four touchdowns in the Jets' two playoff games while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Steelers.

Why Steelers cover: They didn't have much problem dispatching their divisional last week and now get to face essentially a mirror-image of the Baltimore Ravens in the New York Jets. The similarities between the Jets and the Ravens must have the Steelers drooling. Both teams focus primarily on ball control via the run game while keeping opposing offenses honest with their suffocating defenses. Sanchez can be as brilliant or as inconsistent as Joe Flacco and if he plays anything like Flacco did last week (125 yards, 1 TD, 1 interception), the Steelers could take this game over in a hurry. Pittsburgh might not have to alter its game plan even though its opponent is different. Ben Roethlisberger was cool and efficient against Baltimore, competing 60 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and no picks and could be the difference maker if the game comes down to the wire.

Total (38.5): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

 

[ACE-ACE]

"60 MINUTES" LOOKS AT VEGAS SHARP BILLY WALTERS
I'm sure many of you watched the "60 Minutes" segment on entrepreneur and professional gambler Billy Walters after the Jets/Patriots game ended Sunday evening. If you missed it, I encourage you to visit the CBS website to watch a clip.
Viewers got a true sense of what Vegas sharps have to do to make money in the current environment.

• Research. Walters has a staff of experts scattered all over the country who feed him information that help him find edges. He may have his own opinions on games too. But, they're very informed opinions because of all the resources he's created over the years. He has stat guys. He has injury information guys. He talked about a "savant" who can name every player on every team off the top of his head.
• Computers. CBS showed Walters sitting in front of computer screens that show the current pointspreads at Las Vegas Sportsbooks and offshore sites. Walters is constantly monitoring line movements so he can act when he sees a number he wants to attack. Monitoring the lines also helps him see when he's created his own head fakes that have tricked Sportsbooks into moving in the wrong direction.
• Beards. Billy Walters doesn't walk up to a Sportsbook window and place bets himself. Many places won't even knowingly take his action because they're scared to death of him. He's hired people all over the market to step in and make bets for him once he gives them the signal.
• Bankroll. Nobody has a bigger sports betting bankroll than Billy Walters. He's so rich that this is mostly entertainment for him right now. Sure, he's a very intense competitor who wants to win. But, he has a bankroll big enough to weather any temporary setbacks. He's never going to bust out betting sports.
• Brains. This goes without saying, and could easily go first on the list. This is a man who knows what he's doing. He knows how to find the right information, how to protect the right information, how to act on the right information, and how to keep right on doing that even though the market keeps trying to find ways to defend against him.

If you want to be a winner in the field of legal sports betting, there's no better model to follow. You'll never be Billy Walters. There's only one Billy Walters! But, you can apply the same fundamentals to your personal approach.

• Make sure you're getting good information (perhaps, by signing up with the service of a respected oddsmaker who gets you the best information direct from Nevada!).
• Make sure you're shopping for the best number at all times. Don't be lazy in this area. This makes a huge difference over the course of a calendar year.
• Use proper money management so you're building your bankroll as you're protecting it. This may be the single biggest pitfall for squares (the general public). They overbet and have no way to recover from a bad day.
• Start with the premise that you're not as smart as you think you are, and keep working to improve your game and your strategies. There's a fine line between confidence and overconfidence. Billy Walters lives right at that line.

It was great to see a positive piece about sports betting on a major network. Though, it was kind of funny that CBS didn't mention what happened in the Pro-Am at Pebble Beach a few years ago...when Walters used a somewhat questionable handicap to win a trophy! And, CBS televised the tournament! The "60 Minutes" story showed what was possible for sports bettors to accomplish if they're ready to work hard and keep their nose to the grindstone.

 

[unionfitter]

60 minutes interview..

Ace, sat in awe of Mr. Walters...just in total awe. Could this be the beginning of legalized sports betting thruout the US? It seems to be gaining some "steam", to borrow a term. With today's financial issues, seems this is a way to capitalize on something (taxes) that reminds me of the prohibition days. Just wondering if you have any comment, opinion, etc. Maybe it's time has finally come, and there is a Congressman actually pushing this now in DC. BOL this weekend Ace. As always, thanks.

 

[ACE-ACE]

WHAT THE SHARPS THINK ABOUT SUNDAY'S CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
It's very interesting that BOTH of this Sunday's conference championship games in the NFL playoffs have played out the same way in terms of sharp betting.

• Green Bay and Pittsburgh are the favorites.
• Green Bay and Pittsburgh get meaningful support at -3, so much so that sportsbooks had to raise the juice to -120, or -130 at that number before finally settling in at -3.5.
• During the course of events right at the open, or later in the week, some stores posted a favorite by four points, but immediately saw the dog get hit fairly hard.

That makes it pretty clear. Sharps (professional wagerers) like the favorites -3 and the dogs +4!
Good night everyone, see you next time!
It's just not any more complicated than that at the moment. I will be interested to see if additional sharp action comes in on the underdogs over the weekend if the line stays at -3.5. Wise Guys who liked the favorite are already in at -3 or -3 with additional juice. They could read the tea leaves and made sure they got in at that critical number. My sense is that some dog lovers are waiting to see if the public backs the favorites up to four or more on game day. Then they'd come in at lines that offer a little more insurance than just 3.5.
Could the public back the dogs? Most of the time I'd say no. But, we have VERY appealing underdogs this week in terms of squares. Chicago is a team they could easily support at home in a Cinderella story. The Jets are a popular betting team most of the time, and just won outright two weeks in a row as underdogs. As a general rule, the public is going to bet favorites in championship games. That's just always the case in all sports going back since gambling started. This year, things could get interesting.
I haven't talked about the totals yet. There's nothing to talk about! Green Bay/Chicago opened at 43 and has stayed there. NY Jets/Pittsburgh opened at 38.5 and has stayed there. Both cities have the potential for weather influences. It makes sense to wait until the last second unless you know for sure bad weather is coming that would inspire an Under bet. That being said, all four teams have experience playing in cold weather. And, all three cold weather games went OVER last week! Games in Pittsburgh, Chicago, and New England landed on 55, 59, and 49 thanks to a lot of cheap field position points, and some strong armed quarterbacks who could throw through the wind.

 

[teamfball]

not too many overtime games in the playoffs that I can remember

I was considering, prior to this year probable points scored in overtime was 3 and a maximum of 6 points. With this year’s new rules, probable points scored in overtime could be 9 and a maximum of 12 points.

That being said, I’m playing Chi-Undr and Pit-Ovr
[FONT=&quot]..[/FONT]

 

[ACE-ACE]

this week I have 3 plays

one play on the 1st game

there is no system play on that game

Action only....will posted 2:56 pm est

 

[ACE-ACE]

Gb-3.5..................................$800.00

 

[thump4863]

Ace is there a system play on the jets/steelers?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace is there a system play on the jets/steelers?

Yes will posted in 10 mins